A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
